The Guardian and the Times what future

This week end, important news were published on the British press. First it was announced the losses of the Guardian last year. 40 million £ and the necessity to cut the staff by 100 people. Then the stunning results of the Guardian-Observer Web site: 30million UV last May, the number 3 of information sites in the world. A good thing but not enough by far to balance the accounts of the ailing newspaper. Then the Murdoch saga. Rupert is discretely pulling out of his London assets. For the first time in 40 years he is not member of any of his British publications board. This new situation makes it more and more likely that the British press group is on sale. Yes, fine, the bad guy is punished for the hacking and corruption scandal. But who is going to buy. The prestigious Times is losing 60 million £ per year. The Sun is not as popular as it used to be and the News of the World has disappeared. A bit of comfort for the French internaut who watches the decline of the French press.

Is there a life after Presstalis?

The staff of Aurelie Filippetti, the French minister of Culture is desperately trying to find a solution for Presstalis. The bill could go up to 300 millions euros and the government is broke. Newspapers and magazines suffer from both a loss of sales and a fall of advertising. They are not in a mood or in capacity to foot the bill.
The regional newspapers seem willing to take incharge the delivery of the national dailies. To distribute 400 millions copies a year would cost 80 millions, i e 20 c. per copy, A rate that makes this regional network highly competitive with Presstalis. However, there is a condition: no links whatsoever with this unionized and inefficient organization.

Le Monde could be very interested if, and its a big if, it moves into a morning newspaper. According to recent agreements with 5 regional dailies, it could get ,as early as this fall, 125000 copies printed out of Paris, in East, West and South of France. The logical outlet would be to get them distributed by the same newspapers. A major upheaval and a very useful money saving device for the ailing daily.

The fate of group Hersant

Listen to the stunning silence of the minister of Industry, Arnaud Montebourg. Hundreds of jobs are going to disappear at GHM and Presstalis but nobody moves apart from Laurent Fabius who tries to convince Pierre Bergé to invest 3 millions euros to save the dying Paris Normandie and its 350 jobs.

Still, it seems that Group Rossel and its dynamic boss Bernard Marchant are ready to take back the ailing newspapers from East and South but on their own conditions. The gamble of the union Filpac CGT was in fact a kind of suicide. Why should they agree to a not very good deal while their refusal provides an even less attractive solution? Why should they refuse a loss of 350 jobs while the court will allow the bankrupt press group to suppress 5 or 600 jobs.? I doubt the Union will recover from such a tremendous failure.

The other losers will be the 17 banks. They loaned 215 millions euros. They will recover only a tiny part of it. Another good reason for the financial system to keep away from any press business. Endebted groups like Sud Ouest should be very careful.

People say that Vincent Bolloré is still readay to invest in the media through Vivendi. The man is lucky. Nobody will stop him because nobody cares. The job is cut for him.

Group Rossel last stand

The Belgian group Rossel delivered yesterday a press release stating that it pulled out of an endless negociation for buying Group Hersant Media, GHM.It is the result of the negative votes of CGT Union people who refused the reorganization and loss of 220 jobs in the Eastern newspapers of GHM.

Is it the end of the story? Not at all. The union thought wrongly that the socialist government would pour tens of millions of euros to save their jobs. They had a nasty surprise when they realized that the staff of the Industry minister was made of the same civil servants they had met at CIRI, the Finance ministry department in charge of failing corporations. They understood too late that the socialists are not more wealthy and generous than Sarkozy people;

And yet, Hersant has to find a solution to pay back to its 17 bankers its 215 millions of debt. No hope that anybody will pay for him. Rossel is waiting very quietly for the unions to face the tough reality and the banks to agree for a partial loss in hope of saving the remaining part of the huge Hersant debt.

What happens to the media

The turmoil in the media world raises many questions and few answers. Yes Internet is delivering a massive offer of news but opinion polls during the last French elections showed that the public trusted mostly television to be informed. In fact in Europe and in the US people are spending more and more time watching TV, 3hrs30 mn for the French viewers and thetelevision websites are very successful.

Yes the daily press is in bad shape everywhere. In Australia, both Fairfax and News Corp groups are firing hundreds of employees and journalists and starting paying walls. However, the public keeps a strong interest in daily news, whatever their origin, all news television, websites, applications on smartphones and tablets.

The main question remains how to satisfy this apetite for informations which increases every year for every genberation. The answer is money. Quality news are costly. This is why the experience of paying walls needs to be watched very carefully as it is more and more obvious that advertising is lagging behind because of fractured audiences.

A time of crisis

Yesterday, the unions of groupe Hersant Media staged a demonstration in front of the ministry of Labour and of the Regional Newspapers organization. As I have mentionned in previous blogs, the ailing group should cut 600 jobs in the eastern and southern dailies before a sale to the Belgian group Rossel. At the same moment, Elysee and Matignon are working on a solution for Presstalis that could cost about the same number of jobs. It appears then that the crisis of the press industry will be as lethal as any other social dossier facing Jean Marc Ayrault government.

What are the solutions? First, the government should put in charge a social mediator who would try to help the press organizations to reach a settlement with the unions.

Then , the French press owners, dailies and magazines, should build up a more agressive digital strategy. They just need to look across the borders and watch what Springer or Schibsted are doing. These powerful media groups draw a growing profit from their Internet investments, some of them in France. We certainly could do the same and start right now.

The story of the Times Picayune

The Times Picayune, the prestigious daily of New Orleans has existed for 130 years and is a must reading, every morning for the people of the big city. And yet, its management has announced that it was giving up its daily print edition. It will be published only three times a week and rely upon its Website for daily news.

This decision has provoked an uproar among the political and cultural establishment of the Southern city but it won't be revoked. The newspaper is losing money and it is very likely that its exemple will be followed by many others in the US and in Europe.

It is more and more obvious that the newspapers will have to figure out new formulas to survive. The best solution,for the moment, is to combine a bi or threeweekly publication with a paying wall providing instant news. This is bad news for Presstalis,the French delivery organization which is losing the sales of dailies and magazines.