what about 2011?

No doubt, 2011 will be an eventful year for the media and specially the print industry. Lets try to review a list of cases and suggest some ideas for the coming months.

Presstalis The outlook is dark for the main French delivery system of magazines and national dailies. The union is still fighting a rearguard battle on the closing down of the Paris delivery center that loses 24 million euros a year. Still a solution won't be easy to get at. It seems more and more obvious that the press delivery could easily work without Presstalis, one of the last remnants of the postwar organization of the press. With the development of sales on Internet, the distribution of any kind of product is much more easier and cheaper and regional newspapers are eager to take in charge the national dailies, provided the present regulations are cancelled. Yet, the government is afraid of any social upheaval as presidential elections are getting closer (May 2012 is just around the corner). So, there will be more strikes and a lot of money thrown away before Presstalis gets a new megal statute and is reduced to its final role, i e the delivery of magazines at a competitive cost.

I Pad and others. Some papers have mentionned I Pad and the various tablets as a "new eldorado for the press". Is it really true? It seems at least to be an over statement. Its a fact that reading a piece of news with photos on the I Pad is a pleasant experience. However very few people are willing to pay for something else than a highly specialised publication. Information websites face a quandary: either try to collect a wide audience attracting some advertising but not enough to pay for the newsroom or ask for a paid subscription with too small a number of customers. In the US, private fundations are starting to finance in depth reporting but you don't see the same opportunities in Europe.

In 2011, Murdoch and the New York Times will try to push for an extension of paid services. We'll see how many readers will subscribe to a NYT digital delivery. Will it make for the loss of advertising? One must admit that there is no clear-cut solution and, definitely, no eldorado.

Libération; The daily is fighting for its survival. It managed to collect 12 million euros from its shareholders at the end of 2010. Now, it has to find a new boss. Laurent Joffrin, the charismatic publisher, will very likely move to the Nouvel Observateur, to replace Denis Olivennes who left for Lagardère group. No doubt the owners of Libération have a lot to worry in 2011.

Le Monde. BNP, the three new owners face a tough challenge this coming year. They must stop the loss of circulation and advertising receipts and reorganize drastically the printing process and the delivery system. This means it will not be easy to break even and new investments up to 50 million euros will be necessary to finance the buying out of printers and journalists. Moreover, the company needs to be staffed with new executives competent and trusted by the shareholders. Still there is reason for hope. Le Monde is a good label, well known abroad and its website is very successful. The future could be a fairly expansive

print daily connected to a very active website that would be partially free. But le Monde badly needs a bit of strategic thinking which is presently lacking.

Le Monde

What's happening at le Monde? For many observers, there is only one answer: its a mess. The 3 new shareholders are hard to talk to and rarely meet so that nobody knows what is on their mind. Xavier Niel made a disastrous attempt to overlook the working of the daily through an old mate of him; Mr Boukobza. This fellow arrived directly from Israel to check on an activity he knows nothing about and understands little. His statements were reproduced on the website of http://le point.fr . They were so outrageous that the newsroom of le Monde had a big laugh. And yet, the big dossiers: printing, home delivery, advertising are waiting.

The biggest challenge is presently the choice of a new publisher to replace the departing Fottorino. No doubt there are many candidates but the choice should result from an agreement between the owners and the SRM. For the moment, no name has been forwarded. It seems that the best solution would be a team between Sylvie Kaufmann, the editor in chief and an expert on Internet coming from the outside. But plain common sense is not so widespread in this strange world of le Monde.

Bollore and Amaury

A lot of gossip went through the media during the 3 months period of negociations about the sale of le Parisien.

Now the sale offer has been pulled out, people begin to speak and it appears that the most discreet candidate was also the most anxious to buy. His name is Vincent Bolloré, the new media tycoon, owner of 2 Tv channels, Havas and the free sheet Direct Matin. Yet, Bolloré, a savy businessman was not about to satisfy the 200 million euros proposal. He valued the newspaper to half that price. the sale offer was cancelled.

For how long? Sooner or later Amaury family will get tired of managing an expensive print product when the digital scene offers many opportunities for its sports organization. Then, Bollore may appear as a saviour. It is a part he loves to play.

Moreover, the stubborn fact is that print newspapers don't manage to transfer massive profits to their websites. Libération is lagging behind as it is looking for a new influx of capital that could be provided by Claude Perdriel if he strikes a deal with Laurent Joffrin. an opportunity made credible by the departure of Denis Olivennes from Perdriel group. Le Figaro fares much better because it bought, thanks to Dassault, several profitable websites owned by its digital branch Aden classified. By now, Figaro Group makes money because of these new digital activities of classified ads.

What is obvious is that one cannot transfer a daily to the net. Internet users are not ready to browse through screen after screen the way you read a paper. They look for specifics, for labels which are not press names but experts or specialized websites. The digital revolution has still a long way to go.

le Monde, le Parisien

What's happening with the two sensitive dossiers of the newspaper industry?

Le Monde is still in a phase of interrogations. Last week, the closing proceedings were deeply disturbed by the action of the Spanish media group Prisa which refused to be diluted by the 3 new holders of the daily. Prisa wanted to be nothing else than the unsollicited fourth partner, part of the holding company "Le Monde libre" that belongs to Berger, Niel and Pigasse (called BNP). A last minute negociation between Jean Michel Darois, Prisa s'lawyer and the lawyers of BNP and the journalists association (SRM) led to a compromise that will allow Prisa to enter "le Monde libre" and give an advice on the main decisions. What is important is that Prisa agreed on the price of its withdrawal if it intends to leave: 3,5 million euros, the same amount Lagardère received for its exit, a sum BNP can easily afford.

What remains to be seen is the way BNP will sort out the big management challenges of the deficit ridden newspaper. Experts agree that the top priority is the printing unit. Its population of 300 workers could easily be reduced to 100. The net annual saving would be 12 million euros well enough to stop the global losses. Other challenges concern the advertising and the delivery. Most regional newspapers are willing to deliver le Monde through their very efficient network. It would be cheaper and better than Presstalis whose future looks dark indeed. All added, there is no reason to doubt that le Monde could at last break even within 2 years. A good news for BNP, if they act on time.

As far as le Parisien is concerned, the decision of its owner, Amaury to put an end to the sale offer can only bring trouble. The new CEO of the group, Philippe Carli, who has no experience of the media (his previous job was at Siemens), will have to appease the newsroom which is deeply disturbed by the attempt from its historic owner, to get rid of a good newspaper that doesn't make money. It won't be easy to make it more profitable in a declining market when sales and ads are going South.

Even more awkward will be the shaping of the future of the print in a group that believes more and more in electronic communications. Sooner or later, hard choices will have to be made and it is likely that the sale of le Parisien is only postponed. And yet, this sobering experience showed that the value of newspapers is not what it used to be. A hard lesson for Amaury executives;

However, President Sarkozy let it known that he was happy about the decision of Amaury to keep this influential daily.

Are journalists opinion makers?

Cevipof, a research center on French politics connected to Sciences Po and the school of journalism organized on Monday October 25 a fascinating debate on journalism and public opinion. The 3 speakers, Jean François Fogel, Dominique Reynié and Geraldine Muhlman are academics who have done a lot of research on these topics.

What is the relationship between journalism and public opinion? In a famous book "Public Opinion", published in the 1920's, Walter Lippmann described well this complex interaction. However, his position stressing the particular responsability of journalists was criticized by Dewey who favoured a form of community including journalists among others.

In the early nineties, Jay Rosen promoted the idea of public or citizen journalism. It was the idea, out of Dewey, that the journalists should listen more to the public and let them contribute to the production of information. The aim was to get back readers who had been moving away as early as the eighties, well before Internet.

Geraldine Muhlmann stated clearly that she considered the promoters of public journalism had gone too far. It is not enough to interest the public, good journalism implies a fair assesment of facts. One must find a middle way between the positions of Lippmann and Dewey.

Dominique Reynié did not disagree: the coverage of news is a proper job and must follow the rules of checking the facts. The public is not able to provide that kind of information but it is not possible to really influence the public opinion.

However, I would have liked to hear more from the speakers on the last events in the American world of the media: what about the manipulation of the press before the invasion of Irak? How to explain the success of blatantly biased TV Channels such as Fox or CNBC? Is it due to the influence of public opinion? A lot more could be said but time was too short.

digital is the solution

The New York Times and the Figaro group have just published their financial results. Both show uneven figures for the print and promising increases in digital activities that amount to 20% of the income of the Figaro with an increase of 40% of Internet ads in 2010. The Times has reduced its losses for the third term of the year but the circulation of the print newspaper is going down by 4%. However, the website registers a steady rise of advertising.

Still it is a long way before the web provides enough resources for top newspapers like the NYT, the Figaro or le Monde. The I-pad and I-phone applications won't be the solution as the cash they provide will be shared with avid tablets makers such as Apple and others.

The figures delivered by Mediametrie for the audience on mobiles are not very exciting for the media. Figaro is 11th and le Monde is 19th. Google and Facebook dominate the market and will, doubtless get the reward in terms of advertising. Obviously, a new strategy has to be thought out if the media intend to depend less on social networks and agregators.

le Parisien again

Are we getting close to a solution for le Parisien? Here, there are two schools of thought.

Some argue that the withdrawal of Dassault whose whole staff apart from Mougeotte, the Figaro editor, was hostile to the takeover, deprives Amaury, the owner, of any possibility to negociate. There remains only one candidate, Groupe Rossel and Capital fund which is not the best way to improve the selling price. In that case, Amaury would pull out and wait for a better opportunity.

Others think that the sale will take place with Rossel anyway because the future of print is not promising, to say the least and le Parisien will be a less valuable asset in five years.

Rossel people are willing to move forward but don't intend to fulfill Amaury's unrealisitc wishes. They consider that the press group is worth at most 120 million euros. They hope to reduce drastically the operating costs of the two dailies, Parisien and Aujourd'hui en France and improve the Website in order of making the whole business very profitable. However, it will be a long and costly process and agreement on printing on Amaury presses is a stumbling block that could derail the negociation.

It is not easy, these days to sell a newspaper.