Are e-readers out of fashion?

The New York Times in two recent articles dated Dec. 20 and 24, delivers very worrying figures for e-reading observers.

Two years ago, it was common knowledge that e-books were going to bury by 2016 print books thanks to the immense success of cheap convenient e-readers.

2012 figures show that the success of e-books is not as obvious as it should be. Amazon, the leader in the field has delayed an expected move on  book prices that remain, in the US, stubbornly above 10 dollars. Moreover the sales are still growing, by 35% this year, a significant figure but much less that during the previous years. It seems that there is a saturation of the public which is probably also disturbed by the disparition of physical book shops, an ideal place to discover what is on in the publishing world.

Also, the sales of e-readers, including Amazon Kindle are going down: 14 millions worldwide as compared to 17 millions in 2011. This year, the sales of connected machines including tablets were 303 millions.

It appears that most customers prefer to buy a tablet which is more expensive but more useful than a only reading Kindle. Amazon has  assessed the danger and is promoting its touch Kindle fire. Other minor e-readers producers will probably be forced out of the market.

A big question remains unanswered: how is the publishing industry to survive if prices go down and bookshops vanish? It is obvious that e-books are not the solution.

Can Google kill books

For the time beeing, the sales of books have not really suffered from the competition of the electronic delivery systems. In Europe as in America, the figures for 2009 don't show a sharp decrease. E-books are still a limited offer and, fortunately, piracy has not reached the scale of video or music.

Still, I would like to try to look forward. What will happen next year or, a bit further, lets say in 2015?

I believe one should draw a line between fiction and non fiction. As far as fiction is concerned, I don't think things will change dramatically. A paper book is easy to carry, easy to use. Electronic readers won't replace them so quickly and so easily.

Things look very different for non fiction. It is already a common practice to use smartphone applications or research systems like Google, to get for free or at a minimal cost, massive informations on every topic. Yes but people enjoy grasping a synthetic view through an exhaustive book. Is it true really? People don't like to waste their time, especially when they work outside of the literary field. They get used to Internet for their job or their studies. Why should they behave differently for their own leisures ?

Publish or perish

A few months ago, the New Yorker published a long essay titled "publish or perish". It meant to describe, rather successfully, the complex situation of publishers facing, long after recorded music, movies and print newspapers, the challenge of the digital age.

The big question is about e-books. Who is going to distribute them? Who is going to read them, on what machines ? What is going to happen to booksellers who are already losing ground in front of Amazon and co ? Who, in fact, will profit from the digital revolution in the book industry ?

No answer is obvious. No figures are accurate. Amazon famously refuses to provide any indications on the Kindle. Apple and Google are moving into this new field but their strategy is far from clear. We know for sure that there always be publishers to work with authors and edit books. The fate of the bookstores is much less promising. Many will disappear. It is also a fact that the digital books, sold at fairly low prices, won't be a bonanza for the publishers. For many people, the dream can turn into a nightmare. Still, don't worry to early. E-books are less than 1% of the book sales in France.